Five Covid numbers to watch: Is Scotland turning a corner?
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon says recent measures to control Covid-19 have slowed the spread
of the virus "very significantly". But has Scotland turned a corner in this second wave of
the pandemic? Here are five key numbers to watch.
1. Local infection rates
Across the whole of Scotland, the average number of new cases every day is no longer rising.
The figure appears to have peaked towards the end of October and has now stabilised following
a drop in levels at the beginning of November.
However, there are still significant areas of Scotland where cases are on the rise - and this is
causing concern for the Scottish government as it attempts to slow the spread of the virus.
2. The number being admitted to hospital across Scotland
The daily number of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 is an important statistic - but it is difficult
to make a comparison between now and March using this figure as the number of people being
tested has risen so significantly.
One number that is arguably a better gauge of where Scotland is in its second wave is hospital
admissions.
3. How many patients end up in intensive care
The sickest Covid-19 patients are likely to end up in intensive care, where the mortality rate
is high.
A report by Public Health Scotland published in July found that almost 40% of patients died within
30 days of being admitted to intensive care.
4. Will the death rate continue to rise?
The Scottish government announces daily figures of deaths within 28 days of a positive test for
Covid-19.
Scotland went 40 days over the summer with no deaths recorded at all using this measure.
5. Who is getting infected?
It appears that hospital and ICU admissions may peak at a much lower rate than they did in
the spring - so why is that when the number of new cases has undoubtedly surged in the past
two months?
One reason could be that fewer over-65s are being infected now than they were in the early
stages of Scotland's pandemic.
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